Geocheminar spring-2015

The concentrations of short- and long-lived radionuclides in the early solar system are clues to its origins. Theories for the provenance of these nuclides can be divided into 1) the radiochemistry of the solar system has no significance beyond purely chance encounters with a variety of nucleosynthesis sources or 2) the birth environment of the solar system was like the self-enriched massive star-forming regions of today, leaving no signature of specific and identifiable encounters with individual supernovae or AGB stars. In an effort to move past qualitative arguments for and against these disparate theories, Bayesian statistical methods are used to assess quantitatively the relative likelihoods of one scenario type relative to the other. Results of analyses of this type should be considered in formulating a comprehensive theory for the formation of the solar system.